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INDIAN RUPEE VS DOLLAR (CMP @64.63) TO APPRECIATE UP BY 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR UPTO 50 TO 54 BETWEEN MARCH 2019 TO OCT 2020


INDIAN RUPEE VS DOLLAR (CMP @64.63) TO APPRECIATE UP BY 15 TO 20 PERCENT OR UPTO 50 TO 54 BETWEEN MARCH 2019 TO OCT 2020


In the end of January 2017 we saw a loss of momentum when Dollar Rupee (USDINR) was at 67.52 and it also gave a lower close then previous month (i.e. December 2016 ) 67.96.

The team members at  NTDTRADING.IN had alerted through twitter @ntdmagic of this reversal and caution for all the exporters. For everyones reference we again repost all the tweets from 15 December 2016 till   April 11, 2017.

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  15 Dec 2016
More
#Dollar index #usdinr despite spike in Dollar index we are not able to move above 68.4 on usdinr , shows Stable #india @narendramodi @RBI
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/809421879958208513

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  16 Dec 2016
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#usdinr This month again we are at an inside bar with the range of 67/69 , we need not worry so much on rising dollar index , weak momentum
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/809991777482477569


Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Jan 31
More
#Usdinr even after posting new high momentum misses, & now monthly lower close, below are the mentioned trgts in long run.caution exporters
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/826600084863320064

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Feb 12
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@RBI Usdinr continues with negative divergence with lower lows in price and RSI 62.80 first trgt , momentum weak upside capped

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Feb 12
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@RBI @RBI_India @narendramodi @arunjaitley #usdinr medium term suggest appreciated Rupee Dollar move , Huge inflows anticipated ahead
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/830927641414864896





Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Feb 13
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@RBI @RBI_India #usdinr weekly chart reveals complete termination of the trend, with fall in momentum, lower RSI,63, 59.5 ,56.5,53.5 trgts https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/831341458586234880

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Mar 8
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#USDINR , this could be last final bounces, in the history, for the above marked retracements levels , Rest would be History
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/839532544160849921


Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Mar 15
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@RBI #usdinr @narendramodi Huge appreciation of rupee seen ahead with 63 , 59.5, 56.5 and then closer to 50, tsunami of inflows
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/841995510802178048

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Mar 17
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@RBI @PMOIndia @narendramodi #usdinr after long will give a red candle for 4 months ending this March, and the momentum against it
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/842931181523939328

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Apr 2
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#Usdinr monthly price patterns with fibb analysis Suggest appreciated ruppee, surprises can be all the way upto 53 to 49.5 in next 3/4 years
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/848694099351883777

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Apr 7
More
@PMOIndia @RBI #usdinr rupee appreciation continues, daily a bit oversold , weekly trgting 63 and monthly looks top at 66.5, trgt 59 ,56,53
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/850353545186390016

Nilesh Talak Dedhia‏ @ntdmagic  Apr 11
More
@PMOIndia @narendramodi @RBI Fiis have recorded inflows of approx 87049 crores in equity and debt markets since February , Usdinr was 67.66
https://twitter.com/ntdmagic/status/851779706726653953






THE DOLLAR RUPEE (USDINR) ANALYSIS





DollarRupee(USDINR) Daily, Weekly,Monthly Charts)



Excel Data ( Price Retracement & Time Retracement Levels)

Daily Chart:

In the daily chart Dollar Rupee (USDINR) has given major trend reversal on the downside seen appreciation of rupee by breaking Trend lines and important long term daily Fibonacci Moving average.

Weekly chart

Even on the weekly charts we saw major Breakdown on the trend lines and also breakdown below an important Band of 66.25 & 69, which carried the momentum of appreciation in Rupee.

The immediate short term support is at around 62.75 which is again a long term fib average, however given various other parameters, if there is bounce it may try to inch up to 66.50 but since the major trend is down the support after the bounce would be broken with full force.

Weekly Chart (Fib Retracement)


On the basis of Price & Time Fibonacci Retracement we have tried to explain all the major moves since last ten years, arriving at figures and dates which are price & time correction, both are necessarily important, the whole data is mentioned in a tabular format for everyone’s reference and knowledge. The whole Intention is not to panic anyone but to safeguard very cautiously the next move.

Given below the facts we at Team NTDTRADING.IN project price target anywhere between 50 - 54 between March 2019 & Oct 2020

Fibonacci Retracements [ChartSchool] - StockCharts.com
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:fibonacci_retracemen

Monthly chart

The monthly chart structure has given strong trend line breakdown from the level of 66.25, momentum indicators have been trading in negative slope which indicates a start of the current downside.

As per the current scenario Dollar Rupee pair is trading negative from the last four months and breaking all the short term supports very sharply. The monthly chart shows the Dollar Rupee pair is already trading below previous year close i.e.67.96 which can be an important top for many years. 






What could be the reason of Rupee Appreciation:
The current appreciation is majorly based on foreign inflows in Equity and Debt markets most of economist were very negative on India post Demonetisation and also with concerns of rise in Dollar Index however since last few months Dollar Index has lost its momentum from 103.80 levels to 100.50 levels. Which has attracted a lot of emerging market inflows.

We at NTDTRADING.IN have done exclusive study on Dollar Index which is also top of Google Searches...

 Us dollar index can make an all time new low 62 - 65 by 2024-2025
http://ntdtrading.in/research-desc.php?pageid=762  

Moreover there has been lot of awareness form small to all to invest their money through Mutual fund and insurance companies which has restricted people to invest in Gold or real estate.

Further going ahead we will see a more push of inflows due to reforms on GST and other development majors based on various growth on infrastructure, agriculture and other domestic industries attracting a lot of FDI in India. With the growth options limited on Global platform, India attracts lot opportunities given a stable government at centre and major states. In fact we may not be surprised if USDINR is included in Dollar Index in next five to seven years which also coincides with our time retracements mention earlier.

To add more we at NTDTRADING.IN who have been spotted again Top on Google Search for Brent Oil Crash & Brent Oil Appreciate...           

Brent Oil - Crash ?? - We are expecting sharp downfall in Brent Oil... Analysis are follow
http://ntdtrading.in/research-desc.php?pageid=245       

Brent oil can appreciate up to 80-100% in next 1.5 year ( cmp 32$)
http://ntdtrading.in/research-desc.php?pageid=636


The current rally of Brent Oil which has achieved our price Objective will get  Exhausted by August or September as per the time cycle analysis, post this exhaustion we do see Brent Oil trading around its previous lows or even below then that. The reason would be constant fight OPEC nations and SHALE GAS Reserves, Also there has been a huge amount of shift for renewable energy by various countries which will make the application of Crude Oil very weak and the current prices would be unrealistic.


Conclusion: we have tried to mention the technical parameters including Price & Time patterns & Retracements, and the fundamental reason of new born India post
Demonetisation and GST, things would be far superior hopefully the anticipated fall in Brent Oil Prices going ahead will reduce the Import Bill of India  attracting a lot of fiscal balances for the economy reflecting towards a super phenomenal growth.

Detailed analysis by Charan More, Nilesh Dedhia & Team NTDTRADING.IN

 



























Disclaimer:All information given here is largely based on technical analysis which is highly dynamic in nature and relevant only at a particular point of time. Users are advised to pursue these recommendations only at their own risk and first consult their personal investment advisor when making investment decisions. We are not liable and we take no responsibility for any loss that you incure by trading/investing on our recommendations. these study are posted for educational purpose only.

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