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Is Dollar Index closer to tops? Crash of Dollar Index till 65? Rise of Gold till 2300 to 3000 by 2030? Has US Markets are closer to the tops?

US Dollar Index (CMP@90.31): The Dollar Index current market price 90 is at 200 months simple moving average (Currently it is at centre of band) which is falling and will drag it further down. 92.5 is an important level where we have several instances of reversals from there in 2004, 2005 and a support of 2003 was broken @ 92.5 levels...The monthly RSI anytime whenever goes above 70 plus becomes overbought. Now we have drawn a band where we can see lows of 65 coming by 2025 to 2030 for Dollar Index..As per our sense Dollar Index This time it would be a history for long closer to 92.5 levels, max spike could be up to 95.

The overall structure of US Dollar Index on monthly chart is lower tops & lower bottoms which confirms that it is in major down trend and the current rally since last four years have been in corrective one which will top out anywhere between 90-95. We are very much sure about this analysis and US Dollar Index closer to 65 by 2030 is surely possible.


US Dollar Index (Monthly Chart)



GOLD (Monthly Chart)

Gold (CMP@1196):The inverse may go for Gold which can be accumulated in sips and as per our studies it has already bottomed out...given the fact once Dollar Index reverses Gold will also inversely co-relate it and first target can be 1657...on a medium term time frame...However on a longer term time frame we will see Gold crossing its previous highs and will touch 2300 and after 2300 it would be closer to 3000.

Currently Gold is exhibiting the same patterns which went sideways to down from 1996 till 2002 and we saw positive divergences in RSI on an oversold levels.shown in the below chart...However  currently  we have a rising 100 month average  as strong support and also a positive  divergences in RSI Indicator  near oversold levels. These suggest that gold can be sideways to up for may be another 2 to 3 years, but it would be a great pick for 2030 on a SIP basis.


US Economy: Also US GDP growth data suggests that any GDP numbers above 5%, it has been very difficult for the us economy to expand...the last highest number we have seen is in 1984 which was at 7.3% and has contracted from there after that it has hardly crossed levels of 5%, We may find some or other reason for which there will be a drag in Us Economy.

Given all the above facts we see a major top in offing in Us markets in coming months which will have a long downward business cycle for may be till 2025 to 2030.

History of US GDP Data

Year    GDP Growth Rate    Nominal GDP (in billions)    GDP per Capita    Event
1929    NA    $104.6    NA    Hoover became President. His high wage controls combined with the Fed's high interest rates (to defend gold standard) forces more businesses to go bankrupt. Stock market crashed in October.
1930    -8.5%    $92.2    NA    Congress passed Smoot-Hawley Tariffs, restricting global trade. Prices fall 6.4%.
1931    -6.4%    $77.4    NA    Dust Bowl drought begins. Prices fall 9.3%
1932    -12.9%    $59.5    NA    Hoover raised taxes to balance budget, worsening Depression. Prices fall 10.3%.
1933    -1.3%    $57.2    NA    Unemployment hit 25%. Roosevelt became President. New Dealcreated FDIC, FHA and Social Security. Glass-Steagall passed. Prohibition repealed. Inflation at .8%.
1934    10.8%    $66.8    NA    World trade dropped 66% since 1930. U.S. prices rise 1.5%.
1935    8.9%    $74.3    NA    Social Security enacted. Soil Conservation Act began restoring Dust Bowl. Inflation at 3%.
1936    12.9%    $84.9    NA    Inflation at 1.4%.
1937    5.1%    $93.0    NA    Inflation at 2.9%.
1938    -3.3%    $87.4    NA    Prices fall 2.8%.
1939    8.0%    $93.5    NA    Dust Bowl drought ended.

1940    8.8%    $102.9    NA    Selective Service Act signed. First Social Security checks paid. PA and LA highways open.
1941    17.7%    $129.4    NA    Attack on Pearl Harbor forced US into WWII, ending Depression. Inflation at 9.9%.
1942    18.9%    $166.0    NA    Inflation at 9%.
1943    17.0%    $203.1    NA    Prices rise 3%.
1944    8.0%    $224.6    NA    Bretton-Woods Agreement established U.S. dollar as a global currency and launched World Bank and IMF. Inflation rate 2.3%.
1945    -1.0%    $228.2    NA    End of WWII caused 1945 recession. Truman became President.
1946    -11.6%    $227.8    NA    Inflation at 18.1%.
1947    -1.1%    $249.9    NA    Marshall Plan and Truman Doctrine. Cold War began. Inflation at 8.8%.
1948    4.1%    $274.8    NA    Berlin airlift.
1949    -0.5%    $272.8    NA    Recession began. NATO established. Communists took over China. Prices fall 2.1%.
1950    8.7%    $300.2    NA    U.S. entered Korean War.
1951    8.1%    $347.3    NA    Inflation at 6%.
1952    4.1%    $367.7    NA     
1953    4.7%    $389.7    NA    Eisenhower became President. Korean War ended.
1954    -0.6%    $391.1    NA    The Dow finally got back to its pre-Depression level. Recession began. Fed kept rate around 1%. Prices fall .7%.
1955    7.1%    $426.2    NA    Supreme Court ordered school desegregation. Fed raised rate to 2.48%.
1956    2.1%    $450.1    NA    Inflation at 3%.
1957    2.1%    $474.9    NA    Fed raised rate to 3%.
1958    -0.7%    $482.0    NA    GDP plummeted 10.4% in Q1. Unemployment at 7.1%. Fed lowered rate to .63%.
1959    6.9%    $522.5    NA    Alaska and Hawaii became states. Fed raised rate to 4%.
1960    2.6%    $543.3    $17,747    1960 recession started. GDP fell 4.2% in Q4. Fed lowered rate to 1.98%.
1961    2.6%    $563.3    $17,862    Unemployment hit 6.1%. JFK became President. Bay of Pigs invasion. Berlin Wall erected.
1962    6.1%    $605.1    $18,655    Cuban Missile Crisis.
1963    4.4%    $638.6    $19,192    JFK assassinated. LBJ became President. Fed raised rate to 3.5%.
1964    5.8%    $685.8    $20,023    Fed raised rate to 3.85%.
1965    6.5%    $743.7    $21,044    U.S. entered Vietnam War. Fed raised rate to 4.32%.
1966    6.6%    $815.0    $22,158    Fed raised rate to 5.76% to fight 3.5% inflation.
1967    2.7%    $861.7    $22,472    Inflation at 3%.
1968    4.9%    $942.5    $23,326    Fed raised rate to 6% to fight 4.7% inflation.
1969    3.1%    $1,019.9    $23,816    Nixon became President. ARPANET created. Man landed on the moon. Fed raised rate to 9.19% to fight 6.2% inflation.
1970    0.2%    $1,075.9    $23,585    Recession. GDP plummeted 4.2% in Q4. Nixon bombed Cambodia. Fed lowered rate to 4.9% to fight recession even though inflation was at 5.6%.
1971    3.3%    $1,167.8    $24,071    Unemployment peaked at 6.1%. Fed lowered rate to 3.5%, then raised it to 5%. Inflation at 3.3%.
1972    5.2%    $1,282.4    $25,080    Inflation at 3.4%.
1973    5.6%    $1,428.5    $26,281    OPEC oil embargo. Nixon took dollar off gold standard, tripling inflation to 8.7%. Fed doubled rate to 11%. U.S. withdrew from Vietnam. Nixon resigned over Watergate.
1974    -0.5%    $1,548.8    $25,898    Wage-price controls had created stagflation. Ford became President. Fed raised rate to 13% to fight 12.3% inflation.
1975    -0.2%    $1,688.9    $25,590    GDP fell 4.8% in Q1, unemployment peaked at 9%. Fed lowered rate to 7.5% despite 6.9% inflation.
1976    5.4%    $1,877.6    $26,707    Fed lowered rate to 4.75%. Inflation at 4.9%.
1977    4.6%    $2,086.0    $27,656    Carter became President. Inflation at 6.7%.
1978    5.6%    $2,356.6    $28,891    Fed raised rate to 10% to fight 9% inflation.
1979    3.2%    $2,632.1    $29,467    Fed raised rate to 15.5% to fight 13.3% inflation, then lowered it to 12% confusing price-setters. Iran hostage crisis. Three Mile Island disaster ends further nuclear construction in U.S.
1980    -0.2%    $2,862.5    $29,041    Fed raised rate to 20%. GDP dropped 7.9% in Q2. Fed lowered rate to 10% by August to boost economy, then raised it to 20% to fight 12.5% inflation. Iran oil embargo.
1981    2.6%    $3,210.9    $29,488    Reagan became President. Fed lowered rate to 12%. Inflation at 8.9%.
1982    -1.9%    $3,345.0    $28,638    To combat 1982 recession, the Garn-St. Germain Depository Institutions Act was passed, removing restrictions on loan-to-value ratios for Savings and Loan banks, while budget cuts reduced bank regulatory staff. Fed lowered rate to 8.5% since inflation was a moderate (in those days) 3.8%.
1983    4.6%    $3,638.1    $29,662    Unemployment was 10.8%. Reagan proposed Star Wars and increased military spending.
1984    7.3%    $4,040.7    $31,519     
1985    4.2%    $4,346.7    $32,531     
1986    3.5%    $4,590.1    $33,353    Reagan cut taxes. Chernobyl nuclear accident.

1987    3.5%    $4,870.2    $34,114    Black Monday stock market crash. Inflation at 4.4%.

1988    4.2%    $5,252.6    $35,196    Fed raised rate to 9.75% to combat 4.4% inflation.
1989    3.7%    $5,657.7    $36,111    Bush 41 became President. Exxon Valdez oil spill. Invasion of Panama. 1989 Savings and Loan Crisis caused recession.Berlin Wall fell. Fed lowered rate to 8.25% to fight recession, even though inflation was still 4.6%.
1990    1.9%    $5,979.6    $36,378    Iraq invaded Kuwait. Dow fell 18% in 3 months. Inflation rose to 6.1%.
1991    -0.1%    $6,174.0    $35,812    Desert Storm. 1991 recession. Breakup of Soviet Union. Fed lowered rate to 4%.
1992    3.6%    $6,539.3    $36,537    Fed lowered rate to 3%.
1993    2.7%    $6,878.7    $37,094    Clinton became President. NAFTA and European Union signed into law. World Trade Center bombed.

1994    4.0%    $7,308.8    $38,139     
1995    2.7%    $7,664.1    $38,640    Fed raised rate to 6%. Inflation a moderate 2.5%.
1996    3.8%    $8,100.2    $39,623    Inflation at 3.3%.
1997    4.5%    $8,608.5    $40,897    Thailand cut its dollar peg. Speculators sold all Asian currencies.
1998    4.5%    $9,089.2    $42,183    Russia debt default. Long Term Capital Management hedge fund nearly collapsed. Fed lowered rate to 4.75%.
1999    4.7%    $9,660.6    $43,716    Y2K scare. Budget surplus. Euro created. Glass-Steagallrepealed. Fed raised rate to 5.5%.

2000    4.1%    $10,284.8    $45,026    Tech bubble burst. Fed raised rate to 6.5% to fight 3.4% inflation.
2001    1.0%    $10,621.8    $45,046    Bush 43 became President. Recession worsened by 9/11 attacks and War on Terror, but helped by Bush tax cuts. Fed started lowering rates.
2002    1.8%    $10,977.5    $45,418    Bush calls for regime change in Iraq, creates Homeland Security.
2003    2.8%    $11,510.7    $46,137    Unemployment at 6%. Fed lowered rate to 1%. Iraq War began.
2004    3.8%    $12,274.9    $47,307    Fed started raising rates.
2005    3.3%    $13,093.7    $48,312    Hurricane Katrina cost $250 billion in damage.

2006    2.7%    $13,855.9    $49,130    Fed funds rate raised to 6.75%. Swine flu epidemic.

2007    1.8%    $14,477.6    $49,571    Dow reached new high of 14,164.43. Inflation at 4.1%. Fed dropped rate 3 times, to 4.25%, to ease banking liquidity crisis.LIBOR rose to 5.6%.

2008    -0.3%    $14,718.6    $48,951    Stock market crash of 2008 led to global financial crisis and $350 billion spent on bank bailout bill. Fed lowered rate 7 times to 0%. See 2008 GDP by quarter.

2009    -2.8%    $14,418.6    $47,041    Obama became President. Dow dropped to 6,594.44. Obama Stimulus Act spent $400 billion, reversed downward spiral. See2009 GDP by quarter.

2010    2.5%    $14,964.4    $47,772    BP oil spill. Bush tax cuts extended. Obamacare and Dodd-Frank passed. See 2010 GDP by quarter.

2011    1.6%    $15,517.9    $48,282    Japan earthquake and Mississippi River floods. 10-year Treasury yield hit 200-year low. Iraq War ended.

2012    2.3%    $16,163.2    $49,800    Presidential campaign and fiscal cliff created business uncertainty. Superstorm Sandy hit East Coast. See U.S. Economy 2012

2013    2.2%    $16,768.1    NA    Slow growth thanks to sequestration. Low nominal GDP growth thanks to low inflation.


As per the Google search we are at first place in Brent Oil Crash & as per dates first to predict super Bull Run in Shanghai.


{27.12.2014}

























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